Nevada voters to choose governor in race watched by gaming industry
The election outcome could influence gaming regulation and the state's approach to prediction markets.
Nevada voters will decide the state’s gubernatorial race on Tuesday between incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic candidate Aaron Ford, the state attorney general. The outcome is being closely watched by the gaming industry, the state's largest. Prediction markets have recently favoured Ford, while some traditional polls show a much tighter contest. The election follows a campaign where gaming-affiliated donors have largely backed Lombardo. On prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, Ford's odds have risen above 75 percent in recent weeks after Lombardo was the favourite through much of August and September. Other poll sources show a narrower race, with one giving Ford a 45 percent to 44 percent edge and another from early October giving Lombardo a 42 percent to 40 percent advantage. Recent elections have shown such sources can be misaligned with final results.
Lombardo has held a fundraising advantage, according to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office. From January 1 to September 30, his campaign received $6.1 million in direct contributions and spent $12.4 million. Ford's campaign amassed $4.9 million in contributions and spent $5.2 million in the same period. Gaming-affiliated donors have also poured millions into Lombardo-backed political action committees, with one committee receiving over $10 million. Lombardo, endorsed by former president Donald Trump, has been viewed as pro-business, and state gaming regulators have eliminated several outdated regulations at his direction. At an August rally, Lombardo said he has to “take care” of the state’s gaming billionaires who facilitate employment, a comment Ford's campaign has highlighted. In recent weeks, Lombardo has distanced himself from Trump in efforts to swing independent voters.
Ford has drawn support from workers’ unions, particularly Culinary Union Local 226, which endorsed him in September. He has supported the union in its quest to unionise Station’s Red Rock Casino. In a Tuesday statement, Ford said he is “standing in solidarity” with Red Rock workers. One Ford-backed PAC has received $11 million in contributions, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker.
From a gaming perspective, Ford’s office as attorney general has led efforts against prediction markets. Sports, entertainment and election-related event contracts are banned from trading within the state, and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favour of Nevada in August. “Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law,” Ford said in a statement following the ruling. “Our office is proud to have defended Nevada’s authority, and we will continue working to protect Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry.” Since 1998, Nevada has primarily been led by Republican governors, with Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons and Brian Sandoval holding office for 20 consecutive years before Democrat Steve Sisolak broke the streak in 2018. Sisolak was in office during the Covid-19 pandemic when state casinos were closed for 78 days in 2020. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, defeated Sisolak in 2022.